πŸ“š πŸ“ˆInvesting Lessons and Mistakes-2 πŸ“šπŸ“‰

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                                Major Investment Mistakes that Investors do

As an Investor and During financial management, I've done/ seen plenty of big investment mistakes. Though I have highlighted many a times and cautioned during my posts and through Images so Now Writing a blog on this

The major mistakes are

  1. Trying to time the market, Not investing globally
  2. Concentrated folio.
  3. One of the biggest? Not investing at all -- As MarK Gunther says -"Biggest risk is not taking a risk"
  4. Thinking irrationally about risk

In my opinion as a financial Guide, We need to invest if you want to grow wealth. Participating in financial markets is a great way to get your money working for you so you can increase your assets over time.

To help you do just that, here are four mistakes to watch out for with your own investments — and a handful of simple strategies to keep you on the right course over time.

Timing the market

As Warren says - It is the time in the market that is important not Timing the market

It's tempting to think that you can avoid recessions and market downturns, because these events look so obvious in hindsight. The problem is, that's the only time when the path is crystal clear: once it's behind you.

In 2020 during the crash many investors became fearful that was obvious and were trying to time the market and kept trying. Ultimately many lost once in a life time opportunity to invest at prices that were in 2012. Even few wanted to exit as they were seeing the notional loss. I was bit harsh that time with some saying that there is no loss or profit till that is booked.Now they bless

It's easy to think you would have known better with the help of hindsight. In the present moment, though, things are uncertain. Trying to guess what the market will do next leaves you susceptible to emotional decision-making, rather than rational planning.

We expect ups and downs along the way, but as long as you stay consistent — and stay in the market, rather than jumping in and out — you'll be much better positioned for success.

Peter Lynch once said he never leave even his single penny not being invested as he can't time the market

Thinking irrationally about risk

Most people understand basic concepts around investing and risk. They know that investments come with risk of loss, and that the higher the potential reward the more risk that's required.But people overestimate their own skill while downplaying the role of randomness in outcomes; they know unfortunate events happen but tend to think about bad things happening to other people, not themselves.

This can lead to some really big investing mistakes, like:

Making speculative bets in the market, rather than maintaining a diversified portfolio with an appropriate allocation for both their risk tolerance and ability to afford risk.

Looking at others returns rather than looking on their own risk profile and learning themselves

If one attributes the positive outcomes entirely to their skill and bad outcomes entirely to bad luck ( Most robin hood tip followers do that) — which can pull down the quality of future investment decisions Ignoring risk entirely when evaluating an investment that is emotionally appealing.It's hard to maintain a completely rational, objective perspective about our own money. 

Maintaining concentrated portfolio positions- Concentration risk, on the other hand, unnecessarily does the opposite to your portfolio: it increases the investment risks you face and introduces higher volatility.

Concentration means - Putting all your money in few stocks or just in 1-2 high beta mutual funds just in sake of getting quick returns. But that factor put you in high risk too.. Some customers / friends allocated too much 15-20% in single stock, Till the stock price rises all looks good but once it starts breaking then you loose the most. 

One need to make sure to advise clients to ensure that their is not too much concentration of the folio in single stock or also when you make a mutual fund folio it has to be properly diversified.

General rule of thumb is to limit exposure to any single stock position to no more than 8-10% of liquid net worth. There are exceptions, of course, but this is a good starting guideline to use when considering whether to sell or hold a position.

Not investing altogether

There's no shortage of investment mistakes you can make. But perhaps the biggest is a bit counter intuitive: not investing at all.

I usually see this take one of two forms:

Someone always finds reasons to wait to start investing: they'll get started when they have more in savings, when they make more money, when something about the market changes, etc.

Someone builds a great savings habit and amasses a lot of cash, but leaves it all in the bank because they are afraid of taking any investment risk at all. Banks actually eats your money if you take into real rate of return that takes inflation into account.

In the first case, this is a huge mistake because the biggest advantage you can give yourself when it comes to growing wealth is the amount of time you give your money to earn compounding returns.

Warren Buffett isn't insanely wealthy because he's an investing genius (although he certainly is good at it). It's because his money has compounded for over 70 years, thanks to the fact that he started so young.

Don't make excuses to start investing. Do it now, and refine and improve your approach as you go.

In the second case, the mistake here is failing to understand that having cash sitting around not earning anything is also a risk. People feel lulled into a false sense of security when they have a lot of cash when they fail to understand that money is losing purchasing power over time thanks to inflation.

Yes, liquidity is important, but if you don't need that money for many years, growth is also critical. Have a strategic way to determine how much cash you truly need on hand — then consider investing the rest.

Simple strategies to improve your odds of success

These aren't the only mistakes you can make with your investments, but they are some of the most common and widespread that I see in my work as a financial planner. If you want to avoid these yourself, you can keep the following basic strategies in mind:

Choose a strategic investment plan and stick with it

Invest for the long term and avoid high-risk approaches like day trading, speculating, or market timing

Know both your tolerance for risk and your capacity to take risks. Then, think as objectively as you can about risk (and know that bad things can happen to anyone, even you!), even if that means bringing in an objective, outside party to help you make decisions

Maintain a globally-diversified portfolio to reduce risk and volatility

And of course, just get started. There's no such thing as a perfect investment strategy, or the perfect portfolio. Some mistakes along the way may be inevitable, but the most important thing is getting in the market and staying there as long as you can.


Hope this article will help the reader in their investments. 

Also visit Key Learning from investing

Ending my note with

🌼🌼🌼Wishing you all a very Happy New Year 2022🌼🌼🌼. 

May god bring the peace and much needed end to this pandemic to make everyone happy.


πŸ“ˆ  HAPPY INVESTING πŸ“ˆπŸ“ˆ


πŸ“š πŸ“ˆInvesting Lessons and Mistakes-1 πŸ“šπŸ“‰

It has been a while that I wrote my last blog. Now year  2021 is ending and like 2020 it was another eventful year in all aspects be it health, economy finance anywhere. I hope in 2022 we will have a happy ending of this long pandemic which have changed the entire world and lifestyle of the people.

However, I have learnt & still learning on the investing side in my whole financial journey esp in last 2 year. Thought of writing down my learning and mistake so that others can also be benefited from it in some or otherwise

Lets Discuss Leanings first

                                               Key Investment leanings

Be with like minded group - This was what Peter Lynch/warren buffet said It is always good to have good like minded investing people around who can discuss ideas, trends even share some stocks based on their research. It helps you all to find pro & cons (Thesis and anti thesis) of that particular sector/ stock . Most important is to avoid some bad investment. The best learning you can get is by having like minded people around you

Don't discuss bullshit, discuss ideas - I guess once Steve Jobs said " Creative mind discuss ideas and ideal mind discuss about people".  Avoid discussions with people who discuss about others / social political issues where they don't act only discuss as per their opinion. This is not helpful either to society or anyone. Discuss ideas(any) /trends going around you, any brands getting famous etc. This will not only help you but also enhance knowledge and in the hindsight will help society too.  

I only know that political social discussion with diverse mind people creates hatred while discussing ides bring harmony and open new avenues.

Keep Reading/learning - Keep learning new things that interests you even in your field. You may find a good investment idea or even may end up having your own business from your expertise. At least read one page per day. For investments read Earnings call transcript/ Annual reports/ management interviews / good books to change your mindsets. Learning never ends. Invest in knowledge. Listen podcasts/ audibles etc. Learn technical too for good entry and even knowing the exit if needed

Never chase returns, Chase the ideas/stories - Patience is the key to investment. Sometime you invest in ideas where story is cooking but other stocks move. Keep an eye on these stocks and happenings around them. When these ideas ripe then you can get mind boggling returns. Mind that you will not get fruitful results in all stocks but your study will fetch you better returns than others. Few examples in Indian context -  Goldiam intl, Tata Elxsi, Deepak Nitrate, Alkyl Amines, Apollo hospital, Pix transmission and internationally MSFT,AMD, NVIDIA, ASML &  many more where patience has rewarded investors by leaps and bounds. 

Have a forward looking thinking not backwards.

Asset allocation and Diversification - Don't put all of your money in one asset diversify it, have some intl exposure as well. Debt, Gold, Real estate and Stocks.

Never act on news -  Wise investors are unfazed by news flow. Stocks may move suddenly on any news. Keep an eye and verify. Sit calmly and enjoy. Respect your discipline.

Anchoring Bias - We usually get biased with the investment. Sometime we follow the herd. Sometime we by our own perception think stock price is high. Rather than studying/enquiring about that story we just leave it and find later that again getting multiplied. Quality never gets cheaper.

Example - Few people called me for stocks like IRCTC/I EX in India and Google/ Nvidia in US that they are costly.. I told them the story behind them. They are doubled tripled after that.. Same happened for Index. 

Also, avoid buying at 52 week or at lifetime lows and then selling at all time highs This is the most common mistake an investor do

NEVER FOLLOW TIPS - You may get good/bad tips. Even I do follow sometime but always realised it does not work as you don't know the story when it will unfold or is fluke. If you can't study on your own then invest in Mutual funds. You are likely to invest in dead/bad or low yielding  stocks and ultimately your folio in all will under perform.

Always keep in mind " EXIT is MORE IMPORTANT than ENTRY"

                                         For Key Investing Mistakes Visit Here 

πŸ’§πŸ’§W.A.T.E.R πŸ’§πŸ’§

 

πŸ’§πŸ’§W.A.T.E.R:  Way to Timely and Early Retirement (Financial Freedom)πŸ’§πŸ’§

 



Retirement: In my previous blog I wrote about getting financial independence and retire early (FIRE).  I am going to dig deep on the concept here. Retirement in everyone’s mind is retiring from work and lives a kind of relaxed life. Let’s look it from different angle.

Let’s divide retirement in two separate groups. I would never define it by age as I have seen 65+ years old very active and 50 year old no so much. So I would divide it into driven and easy going persons.

If I have to define it through my eyes, I would actually call it financial freedom where you do not have to work for the sake of earning money to run your house hold but where you can follow your passion and dreams. There is one life to live and sometimes we feel we want to do something, then the picture of kids come in front, how I will fund their education, don’t forget the nightmare face of the landlord asking for rent every month if you are late by a day πŸ˜ƒ. At the same time there is so much to do and to be seen around in India and the world. The thought that used to come, am I living what I want to or I am living just another mechanical life, where I would wake up, work, come back, enjoy the weekend with friends or travel and then same cycle all over again. 3 weeks of vacation would be spent in meeting the family living in Punjab and here we are celebrating next New Year eve.

Humans and other creatures were made to go enjoy the nature and this beautiful planet. Humans created the work and now are finding themselves buried deep in it with no time to think about themselves.

All these feelings lead me to write FIRE, In real world water is used to put off the fire but in financial world I would prove it other way round. Today we will talk about simple yet so complex topic of way to timely and early retirement. (PS also see my blog on EARTH if you are planning to retire at full retirement age).

The road to retiring early isn't easy:

If you're planning to retire early, you should aim to have at least 25 to 30 times your estimated annual expenses saved or invested, though that number may be lower or higher depending on the lifestyle you envision.

  •    Depending on how much you plan to spend annually, you'll generally fall into one of three FIRES (financial independence, retire early) categories: FIRE, lean FIRE, and fat FIRE.
  •    To achieve your target number, live below your means, increase your income, and max out your retirement accounts. 
  •    You should also aim to pay off all high-interest debt before retiring, which may include paying off your mortgage early. And don't forget to make a backup plan.

 1. Define early retirement

Retiring early doesn't have to mean never earning a paycheck again — unless you want it to. Many early retirees define it as not having to work to live — i.e. financial independence — but maybe you want to leave your corporate job for something more creative where you can make your own hours or focus on your hobbies

The first step on the path to early retirement is figuring out exactly what that phrase means to you. Establishing your ideal day-to-day will make it easier to plan for — but just so you know, it will probably evolve over time.

 2. Take inventory

There are two things you need to know in order to make a plan for the future

·    First, you should calculate your net worth. This can be done in a matter of hours

·    Second, you need to calculate is your annual spending. You may be able to guesstimate this based on credit-card statements and your checking account habits

3. Establish your target number

After outlining your version of early retirement, it's time to establish how much money you need to make it a reality. This part may be difficult to calculate on your own, especially when there are multiple scenarios to consider, like how a possible recession would affect your investments. A good financial planner can help you crunch the numbers and send you home with an actionable plan to achieve your goal — and even hold you accountable, if you want.

4. Live below your means

It's very difficult to build substantial, long-term wealth if you spend more than you earn. When you're working toward early retirement, it's imperative to live below your means as it's the only way to save and invest aggressively. It does not mean that you cut your required expenses and live in distress.

Depending on how much you spend, you'll generally aim for one of three categories of early retirement: FIRE, lean FIRE, and  fat FIRE .Lean FIRE is when someone has saved up 25 times their annual expenses and lives on a "lean" budget, spending less than the average American. By contrast, someone who achieves Fat FIRE spends more than the average person.

5. Leverage your income

It's crucial to keep your spending in check, but you can only cut costs to a certain degree. You can make an even bigger difference by increasing your income, Cutting your expenses and daily spending takes continued effort — it's a short-term solution — whereas increasing your positive cash flow is a long-term solution may be by generating passive income like real estate etc.

6. Plan out taxes well

 There's at least one common strategy present in nearly every story about financial independence and early retirement: early and frequent savings. Oftentimes the best way optimise your savings is through retirement accounts.

 Employer-sponsored retirement plans (PF/NPS) and other means that  provide unparalleled tax advantages and investment growth like ELSS.

7. Invest the money that's left over

If you're maxing out your retirement accounts, move on to a brokerage/ Investment account. This is money you can invest directly in the stock market/Mutual funds and cash out when you need it.

Many early retirees and self-made millionaires stick to billionaire Warren Buffett's favourite investment: low-cost index funds. Index funds are all-in-one investments that track a specific financial market and are designed to diversify your money and minimise risk.

8.  Mortgage, consider paying it off

In preparing for early retirement, eliminating consumer debt with high interest rates is a no-brainier, but paying off a mortgage early with good terms isn't so cut-and-dry. For some, the peace of mind of being liability-free is worth it, while others may argue that the money saved in interest payments would pale in comparison to potential investment returns.So much of our having a great retirement is mental. Being mortgage free certainly adds another level of mental freedom.

9. Get your health insurance

Leaving a full-time employer also means bidding farewell to your employer's health insurance. If you're waiting for Medicare/health plan to kick in at 55/65, usually the most cost-effective option for health insurance — if available to you — is joining a working spouse's employer-sponsored plan πŸ˜‚. Remember my saying "when you are healthy you ignore, when you are ill insurers ignore".

10. Make a backup plan

No matter how foolproof your plan may seem, consider what could go wrong. You may find you hate the unstructured days of early retirement — would you go back to work? Or the economy crisis, taking your net worth with it — would you have room to cut expenses? Running through potential worst-case scenarios is essential when your livelihood is on the line. 

11. Put Plan A into action — but enjoy the present, too

Time and discipline are all you need to execute your plan from here on out. Keep saving and investing, but don't forget to live in the present while you can.



Happy retirement planning.

To enjoy your retirement lets save the EARTH
E.A.R.T.H - Enjoy A Retirement with Time & Health   
and

Ultimately  ~~~ Life is all about Balance ~~~

Sources referred: Business insider articles, interview excerpts from  Kathriene ZeiglerLeif Dahleen, Grant Sabatier, Eric Roberge,

ELSS VS PPF: Which is better




Public Provident Fund (PPF) is  one of the best tax saving investments for risk-averse investors. PPF offers the triple benefits of tax saving, risk free returns and tax free returns. As per the provisions of the new Union Budget, investors can deposit up to Rs 1.5 lakhs per annum in their PPF account, resulting in an annual tax saving of up to Rs 47,000/- for investors in the highest tax bracket. The PPF interest rate for the current year is appx 7%.Government has linked this to bond yields which is the need of the hour as per global economy so the proceeds may  may decline or increase as per the bond yield. Reason for this is that the 10 yr govt. bond yield is at all time high at 6%. Interest rates are already softened and hence the bond yield impact on  the PPF rates as well.

PPF Returns:
The return in PPF has declined over the years. From 12% at the turn of the century, it dropped down to 11%, then 9.5%, 9% and finally 7% where is languished for many years. Between FY12 and FY18 the rate hovered around 8-8.5%



ELSS as a tax saving Investment
Comparison of PPF and ELSS Investments 

ELSS vs Public Provident Fund (PPF)

ELSS
PPF
Lock-in Period
3 Years
15 Years
Investment Limit
No Limit
Rs. 150,000 per year
Maximum Investment for Deduction under 80C
Rs.150,000
Rs.150,000
Minimum Investment
Rs.500
Rs.500
Returns
Based on performance of equity markets
Rates are fixed by the Central government (currently 8.7%)
Risk
Medium to High
Low

Should you invest in PPF or ELSS
  • Investors with high risk tolerance should invest in ELSS, while investors with low risk tolerance should invest in PPF. Over a long time frame wealth creation potential is much higher with ELSS, as we saw in the charts above.

  • Young investors should opt for ELSS, since they usually have high risk tolerance and a sufficiently long time horizon to ride out the volatility associated with equity investments.

  • If you do not have a PPF account and you are 15 or 20 years away from retirement, you should open a PPF account and start making regular deposits, so that you can accumulate a corpus by the time you retire. As you approach retirement, your risk tolerance goes down and PPF is a better investment option in such a situation.

  • Investors with moderate risk tolerance level can invest in both PPF and ELSS in accordance with their optimal asset allocation strategy. You can read about some general asset allocation guidelines in our article, Asset Allocation strategies for different age groups.

  • Salaried individuals are mandatory required to contribute a portion of their salary to employee provident fund (EPF). The EPF interest rate is similar (slightly lower) to the PPF interest rate and the maturity amount is tax free. The EPF contribution of the employee goes towards the 80C tax savings. Therefore they should opt for ELSS, unless they are near retirement. Investment in ELSS through systematic investment plans (SIPs) over a long time horizon will help you both in tax planning and retirement planning.

  • Self employed individuals should make regular PPF deposits for their retirement planning. It is a good idea to extend your PPF even beyond maturity in blocks of 5 years, if you do not need the liquidity immediately. You can continue to make deposits to your PPF. Even if you cannot make deposits every year, you can stay invested in PPF and your accrued balance will continue to earn tax free interest.

  • Investment horizon is another important consideration, in deciding between PPF and ELSS. The tenure of PPF is 15 years with very limited liquidity during the term of the investment. If you have an investment horizon of 5 to 10 years for any specific financial objective, then you cannot rely on PPF. ELSS may be a good investment choice for a 5 to 10 year time horizon, provided it is suitable for your risk profile.
Liquidity Considerations

  • The tenure of PPF is 15 years and is extendable in blocks of 5 years. While liquidity of PPF is lower than other tax saving fixed income investments, PPF does offer limited liquidity options through withdrawals and loans, during the term of the investment. Withdrawals not exceeding 50% of fourth year balance or 50% of the balance at the end of the immediate preceding year, whichever is lower, are permitted after a lock-in period of 7 years. PPF also offers loan facilities from third year onwards under special circumstances. The loans can be availed between third and sixth year, and should not exceed 25% of the balance second immediate preceding year. Rate of interest of the loan will be 2% more than prevailing PPF rate and the loan must be repaid in two years. The withdrawal and loan facilities notwithstanding, PPF is essentially a very long term investment. Investors must be prepared to wait for at least 15 years to get the maturity amount.

  • ELSS has a lock-in period of three years from the date of the investment. In other words, investors will not be able to redeem their units for the first three years. If you invest in an ELSS through a systematic investment plan (SIP), each SIP investment will be locked in for three years from their respective investment dates. You can opt for both growth and dividend options. But you should not opt for dividend re-investment option, because the every dividend re-invested gets locked in for 3 years in an ELSS. So a portion of your dividend gets locked-in for ever. If you have opted for dividend re-investment in an ELSS fund, you can switch to the dividend payout option. Some mutual funds also allow investors to switch from dividend re-investment to growth option.

For investors with risk appetite, Equity Linked Saving Schemes (ELSS) is one of the most popular investments allowed under Section 80C. Investors can avail triple benefits of tax savings, capital appreciation and tax free returns in ELSS. An ELSS is essentially a diversified equity fund with a lock in period of three years from the date of the investment. From a tax-ability of returns perspective, both capital gains and dividends from ELSS are tax free. Over a long time horizon equities give much higher returns compared to other asset classes. However, since ELSS funds are market linked investments, they are subject to market risk and volatilities. Historically, good ELSS funds have given excellent returns. In the last ten years ELSS funds on average have given more than 19% trailing annualized returns. The chart below shows average historical returns of the ELSS funds category.   




In the strict sense, it is not fair to compare PPF and ELSS. PPF is a risk free investment, whereas as ELSS is subject to market risks. For the sake of illustration we have shown the comparison of returns of Rs 50,000 annual investment in PPF and a good ELSS fund, over a long investment.
If you started an Rs 12,500 Monthly PPF deposit in 2011, your PPF corpus as on Apr1 2021 will be Rs 23.5 lacs, See the difference below


If you had started an Rs 150,000 annual investment in a top ELSS fund from 2010, see the difference. I have not taken for 15 years as Axis started its operations in end of 2009. Now you can imagine for 15 years

In Finance if we apply a rule of 72.. and even  considering avg return of 16% from ELSS and 9% from PPF then your investment is doubling every 4.5 years in ELSS and 8.5 years in PPF. 
Now conservative people have always doubt in mind that stock markets fall badly. Above data contains the 2 biggest falls in Indian stock market history i.e. of 2008 and 2011, even in 2015 stock indices were -ve.


Both PPF and ELSS have their merits and demerits. Your investment choice should be informed by your investment objectives and your risk tolerance level. Your risk tolerance level is based on several factors (discussed in our article Measuring Risk Tolerance of Investors). Age and financial situation are certainly two important factors that determine risk tolerance of an investor.


Conclusion
Both PPF and ELSS are wonderful tax saving investment options. However, their suitability depends on the financial objectives and the risk profiles of the individual investors. Investors should consult with financial planners or advisors to understand their individual risk profiles, and the most suitable tax saving investment options.
References:
1.  An article/Data from Sh Dwaipayan Bose on a mutual fund advisory site.
2. Data from https://stableinvestor.com/
3. Data from Advisory site

Disclaimer: The views echoed above are presented on the basis of available data. Investors should do their own analysis or take help of an advisory services before investing in any of the above depending upon their needs and risk adverseness. There are other avenues of tax saving in 80 C which are not discussed here, folks can refer to my other articles for the same..

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  • Have you decided your financial goals and plan to realize 
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